SUGAR RUSH: PROSPECT FOR PAKISTAN ETHANOL MARKET

Abstract

Agriculture is one of the main industries in Pakistan. It also accounts for 19% of the total GDP of Pakistan and it accounts for the 80% of the total earning of export (Agriculture department, 2020). 42.3% of the total labor force works in the agriculture industry. Since traditional energy resources such as fossil fuels, which are not renewable, and renewable biomass such as woods and agriculture trash, hence there is a quest for sustainable energy sources. Pakistan is the 5th largest sugar cane producer in the world, and 6th largest producer of sugar in the world (Psma, 2020). Therefore, sugarcane derived ethanol has great potential as future energy solution. Table 1 can confirm the data for Pakistan with regards to sugar cane cultivation, sugar production, molasses available and for the ethanol production. The data of current sugarcane, sugar and ethanol production was obtained from literature (Ali, Badar and Fatima, 2015). The forecast of sugarcane production up to year 2030 was obtained by ARIMA model for cotton and sugar cane in Pakistan. From this, sugar and ethanol production were calculated. This data was compared with projected sugar consumption as food and projected 10% ethanol blending with gasoline as a fuel (Ali Badar and Fatima, 2015). The highest sugar production was approximately 7 million MT in 2016-2017 from last few year and again fell down to 6.6 and 5.2 million MT in 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 respectively. Ethanol production is around 500,000-600,000 MT in last few years (PSMA, 2020). The sugar and ethanol production till date as well as projected through 2030 were found to be less by at least three times as food requirement and less than 20% ethanol blending as a fuel for automobile use, respectively (Ali, Badar and Fatima, 2015). Despite Pakistan is within top ten countries for sugarcane and sugar production, the current and projected sugar and sugarcane derived ethanol will not suffice the requirement. There is need to increase sugarcane production as well as setting up more ethanol distilleries in the country. This will require intervention at agriculture, technology, and better policies.